1 edition of A cost-loss ratio model for hurricane sortie decisions found in the catalog.
A cost-loss ratio model for hurricane sortie decisions
Mary T. Hatton
by Naval Postgraduate School, Available from National Technical Information Service in Monterey, Calif, Springfield, Va
Written in English
This thesis examines, using the framework of a cost-loss ratio, the dilemma of the Navy decision maker faced with the question of whether or not to sortie ocean-going ships from a port threatened by a hurricane. The long leadtime needed to execute a full sortie requires the decision maker to rely on hurricane forecasts that may contain large errors, despite improvements in forecasting over the past two decades. Furthermore, decision makers may have difficulty interpreting forecasts without the use of a decision aid. Analysis includes interviews with several tropical cyclone experts, a literature review of the economics of hurricanes, and a critique of a number of hurricane decision aids. Based upon this research, this thesis concludes that the CHARM model for setting hurricane readiness conditions is currently the best decision aid available for reducing the number of unnecessary sorties without putting the fleet at significantly increased risk.
|Statement||Mary T. Hatton|
|The Physical Object|
|Pagination||120 p. ;|
|Number of Pages||120|
convergence of loss cost estimates across approved modelers – the proprietary models in Franklin range from a low of to a high of per $, a ratio of to 1, with other counties having higher ratios. Repetitive decision making and the value of forecasts in the cost-loss ratio situation: A dynamic model: Monthly Weather Review: Probability, Statistics and Decision Making in the Atmospheric Sciences: Westview Press: Exploratory analysis of precipitation events with implications for stochastic modeling.
• The model was first activated in March This version was used to process the insurance company data on behalf of the Florida Office of Insurance Regulation. • In Summer a revised and updated version of the model was accepted by the Florida Commission on Hurricane Loss Projection Methodology and put to immediate use. hurricane loss model to assess hurricane wind risk and predict insured losses for these residential properties. • First activated in March Latest version activated last September. • Hurricane wind loss model has been used over 1, times by FL-OIR to evaluate rate filing. • Model is used to conduct stress tests on insurance companies.
Hurricane Model for the United States version as implemented in Touchstone and acceptable under the Standards. In accordance with the procedures for Interim Model Updates after a Model has been Determined to be Acceptable by the Commission in the Report of Activities, as Chair, I 7. Gulati et al. () investigated the computation and distribution of probable maximum loss in the case of personal residential structures for version of the Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model using parametric and nonparametric methods.
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An illustration of an open book. Books. An illustration of two cells of a film strip. Video. An illustration of an audio speaker. Audio. An illustration of a " floppy disk. A cost-loss ratio model for hurricane sortie decisions Item Preview remove-circle Share or Pages: A cost-loss ratio model for hurricane sortie decisions.
By Mary T. Hatton. Download PDF (6 MB) Abstract. This thesis examines, using the framework of a cost-loss ratio, the dilemma of the Navy decision maker faced with the question of whether or not to sortie ocean-going ships from a port threatened by a hurricane.
and a critique of a Author: Mary T. Hatton. Hurricane preparation decisions are usually examined in a static, one-time cost:loss framework, which is a simple decision-analytic approach that has been widely used to investigate the value and optimal use of weather information (for an introduction, see Katz and Murphychapter 6).The ultimate impact of a tropical cyclone is determined by a series of decisions Cited by: Calhoun: The NPS Institutional Archive Theses and Dissertations Thesis Collection A cost-loss ratio model for hurricane sortie decisions.
Accordingly, our decision model is a two-stage stochastic program with recourse. Lodree and Taskin () and Taskin and Lodree () use a Bayesian decision model with hurricane wind speed updates to manage inventories in a serial supply chain.
The latter paper generalizes the former by considering a multiple, rather than a single, retailer Cited by: Storm intensity is found to have a weaker association on overall inventory decisions.
Using the results of the empirical analysis and the NHC forecast data, we construct a state-space model of demand during the threat of a hurricane and develop an inventory management model to satisfy consumer demand prior to a hurricane making landfall. HURRICANE READINESS Making Better Decisions HURRICANE READINESS A Short Course AGENDA •Hurricane Basics: Lifecycle, Climatology and Hazards am –10 am •There is a Storm.
What’s the info. am –12 pm •Forecast Uncertainty. What, Me Worry. pm –3 pm •Making Better Decisions pm –5 pm.
by $ in the RMS Model and $1, for the RM S model. However, the presence However, the presence of shutters reduces AALs by only. To assess the economic value of probabilistic weather forecasts, a decision-theoretic concept of the value of imperfect information is used.
In practice, the economic value of ensemble-based weather forecasts has been assessed for a prototypical decision-making model known as the cost–loss ratio situation (Katz and Murphychapter 6; Palmer ).
2) The Hurricane II (the Squadron had converted from the twelve calibre machine-gun IIB to the four 20mm Hispano cannon IIC only in June '44, "but this was not allowed to affect the operational work of the Squadron," as mentioned proudly in Pg. of the Official History of the IAF in WW II) had two Main wing tanks of 33 gall.
each, one. The climate change model suggests a 46% chance that Florida will be hit by at least one hurricane each year in the future (Malmstadt et al. ), and recent experience seems to support this. Fig. Hurricane Operations for the Nation. The National Hurricane Operations Plan (NHOP) is published annually prior to the hurricane season, and documents the interdepartmental effort to provide the United States and designated international recipients with forecasts, warnings, and assessments, concerning tropical and subtropical weather systems.
Algorithm for the Probabilistic Insurance Loss model (PILM) p. 17 9. Algorithm for the Scenario Insurance Loss model (SILM) p. 23 Use case for actuarial form A1: Loss estimates for thirty hypothetical hurricane events p. 28 Use case for actuarial form A2: Loss costs for hypothetical coverage by.
hurricane loss model for purposes of assessing hurricane wind risk and predicting insured losses for residential properties (both personal and commercial residential). • Model development was not influenced by OIR. • The first completed version of the residential model was activated in March Latest version was activated this September.
For instance, a person may think his cost-loss ratio for precipitation is (20%), but his actual cost-loss ratio may be (5%). In this case, in order to make sure people still make the "correct" decision, PoP forecasts that fall between.
The purpose of this paper is to model the decision process of households during a hurricane threat and to predict future household evacuation behavior. I examine the likelihood of household evacuation using data from a survey of North Carolina residents who were affected by Hurricane Bonnie in the summer of Using revealed.
The Florida Public Hurricane Loss Model Version Shahid S. Hamid, Ph.D., CFA PI, Hurricane Loss Projection Model Professor of Finance, College of Business, and Director, Laboratory for Insurance, Economic and Financial Research International Hurricane Research Center Florida International University.
Hurricanes have been in the news of late, threatening major urban areas and regions of high population density. While we can see devastating results, GIS has become an important tool in assessing the risk of hurricanes and estimating the.
FAQs for Victims of Hurricanes Katrina, Rita and Wilma (8/13/08) Q. Provide examples of how the casualty loss, reimbursement, and non-recognition of gain rules apply to taxpayers who sell their principal residences that were destroyed by hurricane Katrina, Rita, or Wilma.
A probabilistic wind prediction, however, would likely indicate a modest probability that wind speeds could exceed 30 mph. Thus, the user with a low cost/loss ratio (low cost to protect or very expensive loss) might choose to use resources for protection in such a circumstance, whereas users with a high cost/loss ratio would likely do the opposite.
The Hawker Hurricane is a British single-seat fighter aircraft of the s–40s that was designed and predominantly built by Hawker Aircraft Ltd. for service with the Royal Air Force (RAF). It was overshadowed in the public consciousness by the Supermarine Spitfire's role during the Battle of Britain inbut the Hurricane inflicted 60 per cent of the losses sustained by the Luftwaffe.
The average cost for a hurricane preparedness kit is much less than not being prepared. Overall, you can expect to spend around $ for supplies to ride out a low threat, category hurricane for days. Plan on much more, for a category storm, and for a longer period of time like days.Support decision-making and best practices in business and government Hurricane and Tropical Meteorology Our experts in hurricanes and tropical meteorology have extensive experience in developing and applying numerical modeling and data assimilation codes to simulations and forecasting of hurricanes.